Wednesday, 23 August 2017
Mathematically it seems that aliens are not as advanced as us.
For the future, the exponential trend means that we could advance as much as we did in the last ten years in the next five, which is mind blowing. If the trend continues, it means that in about 2030, we could advance just as much in one year, and by 2040, we could have robots which can build better robots than themselves, leading to an infinite loop of improvement, and the singularity. That is just if the trend continues at its current rate. It may take longer, but it won't stop, and I'd be very surprised if it hasn't happened by 2060.
You may be skeptical, and say that my timelines are too short, and that won't happen for the next thousand years. You'd be very wrong, but it doesn't matter :) What matters is that it's a very short period of time relative to the age of the universe. 14 years is a billionth of the age of the universe, and 1,400 years is a ten millionth of the age of the universe.
So, hypothetically, if there was an alien race that was more advanced than us, it's very unlikely that they'd be just a little bit more advanced. If they developed just 1 percent faster than us, they'd already be 10 million years ahead. If we can get to the singularity in fifty years, then 10 million years is just mind-blowingly, ridiculous.
Now, given the millions of years that they've had to do that, they should have had time to generate a few billion times the number of life forms that we have on planet Earth, making the probability of being a less advanced life form very, very small.
The next thought that comes to mind is, well, why would we be the most advanced?
Maybe it's just that simple, that no beings have ever reached the singularity, and we're going to be the first and most intelligent.