Rather than writing back, to express my opinion on the matters, I'd prefer to chat a bit about the simplest method I can think of to determine the truthiness of an extraordinary claim.
I think that the easiest way to determine its validity is to check if the claimant is a reliable source. So, in case it's of use to anyone, I've ranked a few claimants, in order of Santa Clause and the Easter Bunny to the voice in my head, along with my thumb suck of how likely an extraordinary claim made by them is true. Hopefully it's not entirely erroneous. Whether you agree with the order, or you're wrong, I'd love to hear your opinion.
| Where did I hear the extraordinary claim? | Chance that I'll believe it. | My thinking on the source. |
|---|---|---|
| A member of the Flat Earth Society | 1 % | because... duh. |
| A prophet, whose had a failed prophecy. | 1 % | The reason for 1% and not 0%, is they may get something right out of sheer, dumb luck. |
| naturalnews.com | 2 % | appeal to nature |
| mercola.com | 2 % | Seems to be a supplement salesman, disagreeing with reliable sources of medical research, in order to sell his supplements. |
| A Facebook post with the words TRUE FACT in capital letters and no references (Share this with everyone you know!). | 3 % | If it was true, it would have been shared by a reliable source... but it wasn't. |
| The average politician | not so much % | They're highly motivated to tell you what you want to hear. |
| The average salesman / recruiter | meh % | Also highly motivated to tell you what you want to hear. |
| The Daily Mail, or Sun "newspapers" | hmm % | Shock value! |
| Average Joe | 30 % | The average brain is probably more interested in protecting its beliefs than attempting to disprove them. |
| Very smart Joe | 50 % | Better than average Joe, but intelligence isn't everything. He's just better at defending his incorrect beliefs. |
| The average expert in their field shares a claim about something in their field of expertise. | 65 % | Depends on their motivation / the motivation of their field |
| A bit difficult to rate this one, because they could either be very likely to be correct, or their entire field could be nonsense. An expert salesman or recruiter would be difficult to believe, because the motivation for their words is to make money. A cult leader, or top psychic would obviously be unbelievable. A programmer, doctor or scientist would be much easier to believe, unless they come across as somehow having special knowledge that no-one else in their field has... then it's unlikely they're telling the truth. | ||
| Wikipedia | 80 % | Lots of references, review and discussion, but sometimes with bias and without expertise. |
| Someone who's read a number of books about critical thinking. | 85 % | Wisdom is far superior to intelligence. |
| Anyone who is serious about finding the truth, and not simply finding evidence for their pre-existing beliefs, should start by learning about cognitive biases. It is natural for us to be biased. Our emotions play a huge role in the way we process information, and determine our beliefs. Learning about critical thinking helps us to catch ourselves out when we're thinking irrationally. Knowing that a person has put in the effort to read books about critical thinking tells me what the individual really cares about. Some books on thinking that I've enjoyed. | ||
| A scientist shares a claim about something in their field of expertise. | 90 % | Scientists use methods developed specifically to remove bias. |
| The Guardian newspaper. | 90 % | Seems well researched. |
| It may have a pro-environmental bias, but seeing as I'm particularly fond of planet Earth, I don't see that as a problem. | ||
| Snopes.com | 92 % | |
| A scientific journal | 94 % | Peer review and the scientific method. |
| NASA. | 95 % | They have rocket scientists. |
| Non-profit health services like the NHS and Cancer Research UK. | 95 % | They have nothing to gain from misinformation. |
| BBC news (Except for the weather report) | 95 % | Here's why |
| Scientific consent | 96 % | Nobody knows everything, but this is the best we're going to get. |
