Saturday, 7 November 2015

Ideas for anyone who is convinced about beliefs that others disagree with.

I have noticed that many people are convinced about beliefs, even though others are equally convinced of beliefs that contradict them.  They all have their evidence, so you're not going to change their view by arguing with them.  Each person has to examine their own thoughts.  Here are some ideas.

Consider why others disagree with you, and try and understand their point of view.  Are they just as convinced as you are?  Do they think they have just as much evidence as you have?  Have they taken as much effort questioning and trying to disprove their beliefs as you have?  Do they have the same beliefs as their parents, or did they arrive at their conclusions through independent research?

Be honest with yourself.  Dig deep and consider whether your goal is really to know the truth, or just to protect your beliefs?

Truth is stronger than a diamond.
Truth is stronger than a diamond.  No matter how much you question or test it, it will remain unchanged.  It does not require constant affirmation or faith in order to exist.

Try to disprove your beliefs.  If you only try to prove, but not disprove your beliefs, you will believe anything.  Anyone who tries hard enough to find evidence for their beliefs will find it, regardless of what that belief is.

Search Google for counter-arguments.  There is no need to be afraid.  If those beliefs really are true, then the stronger evidence and answers that you find will verify that, and increase those beliefs.  If the beliefs are not entirely true and you find evidence against them, or logical problems, then you would have been better off without those beliefs in the first place.

Read books on critical thinking.  Learn about cognitive dissonance and how it affects your thinking.  Learn about logical fallacies, overcoming cognitive biases, open mindedness, the scientific method and double blind, randomized, controlled trials.  Read about persuasion and cult tactics.

Get away from everything that influences your beliefs for a month.  Travel to another country and spend your time with people who have completely different beliefs.

Never stop learning.

Books to read to improve thinking skills
YouTube channels to improve thinking skills

Image credits:

1. http://www.freeimages.com/photographer/daddy-kool-39209

Sunday, 11 October 2015

List of YouTube channels to improve thinking skills

In an earlier blog post I listed books that can help to improve thinking skills.  I find that disagreeing with people hardly ever ends well, and often leads to people feeling even stronger about their beliefs, having put so much effort into defending them.  So I prefer to just share information and hope that people will arrive at better conclusions by themselves.

Perhaps some people would like to improve their thinking by watching videos, so here are a list of YouTube channels which can help to improve your thinking skills:

QualiaSoup makes easy to follow videos, often related to thinking, like his Critical Thinking and Open-mindedness videos.
Kevin deLeplante uploads lots of  critical thinking, logic and fallacy related videos.
Julia Galef is president and co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality.  She uploads a short video once a week or so on something interesting.
James Randi Foundation.  James Randi is a magician, who understands how our minds can be tricked and likes to share information about critical thinking.
Bo Bennett has a channel listing a number of critical thinking related videos.

Interesting videos

Dr. Michael Hewitt-Gleeson teaches the CVS2BVS switch.  This is a very simple, but effective strategy from his free PDF book, Software for your Brain.
My video on critical thinking
Edward de Bono's thinking course

Other channels that may be of interest

Science Literacy (A new channel)
Skeptic Magazine
TED (Interesting talks)
Massimo Pigliucci (A philosopher)

Saturday, 26 September 2015

Democratic Intelligence in a Nutshell

There is already a lot of software available that governments can use for referendums.  I therefore don't have any desire to work on software that a government could use simply to get opinions and votes.  My interest is in software that a government is actually using or is going to use, or on my site, Democratic Intelligence.

One of the things that makes my site different is that, although a government could use it, the main intention is to create an international network of decision makers and volunteers.  It's more like crowdsourcing than traditional democracy, and while it can be used for small decisions, my ultimate, utopian dream is for the idea to eventually replace traditional democracy and unite the world, making country borders obsolete.

The following are the principles that Democratic Intelligence is based on:

  • International (uniting, and can even spread into countries ruled by dictators, rather than being specific to a single country)
  • Self-improving (the system is designed to continuously change and improve itself through use - users can create suggestions for improvement and volunteers can implement the suggestions)
  • Fully democratic (anyone can create suggestions (not just a government) and anyone can vote and volunteer / implement)
  • Meritocratic (people earn points in various subjects in order to have a stronger weighting of arguments and votes)
  • Critical thinking (competency in all subjects requires competency in critical thinking)
  • Transparent
  • Gamification (points are earned to encourage use of the system)
  • Goal oriented (the entire system exists for a single, unified purpose)





With that said, I assume that most activists have their own ideas about what the ideal system would be that they want to be involved in.  As for me, I have put a lot of effort into my idea, and now I just want people to use it regularly, so that it will self-improve and grow, even if that means using my system to collaborate on ideas for building a better system, or one that serves a different purpose.







For full details, take a look at my chapter in Anticipating Tomorrow's Politics.


Sunday, 23 August 2015

My Predictions

As someone who's interested in the future, I thought I'd give my predictions on what it's going to be like.  I know that it's impossible to accurately predict the future, so I don't expect these to be perfect, but it will be interesting to look at this in the future and see if I was spot on or slightly delusional.

When thinking of the future, one has to think exponentially, which I don't think comes naturally, and which is why so many people underestimate the speed at which change will happen.  Looking at the past, there were hundreds of thousands of years during which humans progressed very slowly.  Then in the 1800's we had trains, in the 1900's we had cars and now, in 2015, a spacecraft has arrived at Pluto, which is billions of miles away.

In the past ten years alone we have developed things that we might not have thought possible.  My internet speed is about a thousand times faster, we have cars that can drive themselves and computers which we can talk to, that live in our pockets.

For the future, the exponential trend means that we could advance as much as we did in the last ten years in the next five, which is mind blowing.

So, given the exponential trend, this is what I predict for the next ten years:



2025

http://www.freeimages.com/photographer/Hexal-38841
The self driving capability of vehicles will become standard in new cars and trucks.  In order to save money, companies will start replacing truck drivers with self-driving trucks.  I'd guess that about a quarter of truck drivers will lose their jobs in the next ten years, with some truck drivers becoming truck guards.  In twenty years the concept of a professional truck driver may no longer exist.

Supermarkets will improve the efficiency and automation of checkouts.  I'd guess that in ten years time there will be shops in which you'll be able to pick an item off the shelf and walk out of the shop, and everything you've chosen will automatically be paid for from your bank account.  There may be people employed who pack the shelves, but robots will also be used for this purpose.  Except where a supermarket decides to employ people purely for job creation, I don't think there will be people at checkout counters.  That will be pointless.  There will probably be a few security guards who are notified of potential incidents by computer systems programmed to identify suspicious activity.

Governments and economic systems will take a long time to catch up with technology, leaving millions of people unemployed and struggling to make ends meet.  This will also lead to more advanced crime, and more advanced crime fighting technology.

We will continue to pollute more, increase our greenhouse gas emissions, increase our energy consumption and use up forests and other resources.  This is due to the short term profit motives built into our current economic system, which is very resilient to change.

2040

In about twenty-five years time I think that AGI (artificial general intelligence) will be able to do pretty much everything that humans can do, making human jobs irrelevant.  By this time governments and citizens will hopefully have realized that the entire economic system no longer works, and a guaranteed basic income will have been implemented in most countries, making it unnecessary to try to find a paying job.  After this the concepts of money and ownership will be phased out.  One will be allocated a home and be able to switch homes, but nothing will really belong to anyone since there will be an abundance of everything.

The result of this system change will be that we can change our priorities to address all of the environmental issues that we've created, hopefully reversing the damage before it's too late.

2200

After a hundred years everything will become unrecognizable.  Our AGI will have learned everything there is to know about consciousness and be able to build consciousness generators (like brains).  The idea of still having a meat based body that can get damaged, wear out and contract diseases will be ridiculous.  We will simply be consciousness that experiences adventures we cannot even fathom today.

The next challenge to the AGI will be to protect us from extra terrestrial threats like comets, supernovas and eventually, the end of the universe.


Image credits:

1. http://www.freeimages.com/photographer/Hexal-38841
2. http://www.freeimages.com/photographer/vierdrie-46406

Sunday, 16 August 2015

List of books to improve thinking skills

Here's a list of books that I enjoyed, that can help to improve thinking skills:

Software for Your Brain (Download for free)
English Thinking: The Three Methods (Updated version of Software for Your Brain)
Mistakes Were Made, But Not By Me (Easy to read book on cognitive dissonance)
Your Deceptive Mind (Audio book on critical thinking)
The Demon Haunted World (Carl Sagan's excellent book on critical thinking)
When Prophecy Fails (Practical example of cognitive dissonance)
Bad Science (Mostly about medicine and how to figure out which ones to trust)
Tricks of the Mind (For fans of the magician Derren Brown)
Nonsense On Stilts (Discussions about various topics)

Saturday, 21 February 2015

Misconceptions about what science can prove.

One of my best friends shared this very interesting and thought provoking video on Facebook recently.  He didn't share the video directly from YouTube, but instead shared this link, containing the video.  The title on that page is "Science Has Finally Proven That Atheism Defies Any Logic and Reason."


For about the past ten years or so I've grown to realize how bad I was at knowing whether I really had enough evidence for what I believed, or whether I was just looking for evidence which wasn't actually there.  In an attempt to improve my objectivity, I've read many books on critical thinking and the scientific method.  It's really eye opening doing so, and something I'd recommend for everyone.

Anyway, the reason for this post is to point out why the title given to the video is very misleading.  Primarily, because the scientific method, possibly one of humanity's greatest inventions, doesn't actually prove anything.  The scientific method goes something like this:  define a question, gather information, formulate a hypothesis, do tests to try and disprove the hypothesis and publish your findings so that other people can try to disprove the hypothesis.  As you can see, a scientist is always trying to do whatever he can to disprove something.  If he and his peers have done everything they can to disprove the hypothesis, they can sometimes say that the evidence shows that the hypothesis is beyond reasonable doubt.  This however does not prove the hypothesis.  It's a bit like saying that I know beyond reasonable doubt that I do not live in the Matrix, but I cannot prove it, because there could always be an unknown factor that I'm not taking into account.

It is quite normal for people to try to find evidence to back up what they already believe, for example, a Muslim might watch this video and decide that this is proof for Allah.  An atheist might watch the video and decide that it is proof that there were at least 2 to the power of 10 quintillion big bangs.  A scientist, however, would try to be objective, figure out the premises that support the argument and try to disprove them, or find alternative explanations.

So, lets try to examine the video and see objectively what this man is saying:

He is actually creating an argument based on four premises, which are quite hard to define, but I think it's something like this (feel free to suggest improvements):

1. The odds of a randomly generated big bang (or big bang attempt), generating a universe capable of supporting life are much less than 1/n, where n is approximately 2 to the power of 10 quintillion.
2. The number of big bangs (or big bang attempts) that ever have existed is much less than n.
3. If a universe (or big bang) is not randomly generated, then it can be only have come about through the intelligence of an incredibly intelligent super being.
4. Life exists.

So, in order for this man's argument to be proven, all of these have to be proven to be 100% true.

The fourth one is definitely true, however, lets take a look at the other three:

1. Figuring out what the odds of a big bang generating a universe capable of supporting life is an incredibly hard thing to do.  You basically have to be a super genius, knowing every single possible way that life can be formed and supported.  For example, the notion of Jupiter protecting Earth from all the asteroids is a fascinating one, but a much simpler way for a planet to be protected from asteroids is not to place any asteroids there in the first place.  Another supposed requirement, might, for example, be water, however can we prove that consciousness always requires water?  Do we even have a clue about what consciousness is made of?

2. The assumption is that the number of big bangs, (or big bang attempts) is one, or less than 2 to the power of 10 quintillion.  We can prove that the number of universes is at least one, but I don't think that there's any way to prove that the number of big bangs is any less than 2 to the power of googolplex.

3. Can we assume that a deity-like creator's intelligence is the only possible way for a structured universe to exist?  Firstly there's the problem of the intelligent creator's prior existence:  We could ask the question, "What are the odds of fundamental rules existing that are capable of supporting a creator?"  Do we know the fundamental rules that generated the rules for the generating the universe?  Perhaps consciousness (or life) is simply fundamental, and the fundamental rules governing everything simply require life to exist.

But let us, for argument's sake assume that all three premises are more or less reasonable, e.g. 75% likely to be true.

That would mean that the argument would be 75% X 75% X 75% likely to be true.  In other words:  42% likely to be true... slightly less than the flip of a coin.  One would then, however, also need to take into consideration all other arguments for and against the existence of an intelligent creator to get a more accurate probability.

My conclusion is simply this:  Science cannot prove the existence of an intelligent creator.  Religions, such as Christianity and Islam, require the concept of faith, which is not scientific at all.  Faith, according to dictionary.com can be described as "belief that is not based on proof."  If your deity of choice appeared to you visibly, and spoke to you, showing evidence beyond reasonable doubt that he exists, then your belief would no longer be based on faith.  If faith was based on evidence that could be comprehended, then the smartest and most objective scientists in the world would be in the right religion, and the less intelligent, less objective & scientific people would not.  As it is, faith is more likely to be based on the faith of a person's parents and the person's geographical location than anything else.

Saturday, 8 November 2014

My Peace Grand Challenge Competition Entry

I've had a number of requests for copies of my Peace Grand Challenge competition entry, so I've copied it below.  The competition was "to submit an essay describing your idea on the subject ‘Innovative solutions for world peace, 2014-2034.’"  It was evaluated on these criteria:

  • Impact (25%) – Ability to impact millions of people
  • Technology (25%) – Smart use of technology
  • Feasibility (25%) – Project feasibility (including sociological credibility)
  • Applicant (25%) – Applicant profile, achievements, and potential 
(Which should explain why I write a bit about myself)


The essay was written by adding more detail to a blog entry that I wrote last year:

A Self-improving, Transparent, Democratic, Meritocratic, International System

About Me

I have been writing software since I was eleven years old. When I was seventeen, I wrote a real time 3D graphics engine with texture mapping, in assembly language (only something that hardcore computer nerds do). Since then I have accumulated sixteen years of professional programming experience. It should come as no surprise, therefore, that my idea is based on software.

The Problem

In order to create world peace, one has to solve the problem of world conflict. These are some reasons for conflict:

  • People are divided into groups like religions and countries. Without being classified into a group it's more difficult to find a group to fight.
  • People have extreme ideas and are unwilling to be critical of their ideas and consider alternate points of view.
  • Desperation, caused by poverty. If one had everything one wanted there would be no reason to fight.
  • Lack of a systematic method to change what you care about, leading to ineffective petitions, striking, demonstrating, rioting and civil war.
  • Lack of transparency in governments, leading to corruption, lack of trust and anarchy.

Perhaps you can think of more reasons, but I'll leave that up to you to think about as you read my idea and ponder whether or not this idea (or any other idea) addresses the causes of conflict.

According to Wikipedia the countries of the world are governed as follows:

Type of regime
% of countries
% of world population
Full democracies
15
11.3
Flawed democracies
32.3
37.2
Hybrid regimes
22.2
14.4
Authoritarian regimes
30.5
37.1

One might think that the solution to world conflict is to get that 15% up to 100%. but while democracy sounds like a great idea, and generally is much better than a dictatorship, it has many flaws including:
The current archaic voting system.


  • Being based on archaic voting systems.
  • Only applies within a country.
  • The problem that the majority actually know far less about what they're voting for than the minority of experts.
  • Highly inefficient, when you think about the £31,000,000 that parties spend campaigning for an election.
  • Votes are not only cast by the extremely rare intellectual few who know the ins and outs of every party, but by a large group of people who are influenced by advertising.

I could carry on, but I'm sure you get the general idea.

A Potential Solution

You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” 
― R. Buckminster Fuller

My StackOverflow profile.
What annoys me is that we have really great democratic, meritocratic and transparent systems in the IT world, like StackExchange, but the way governments run countries seems to be a bit prehistoric.  I don't know much about politics, but I know a good system when I see one.

Let me start by telling you a bit about StackExchange and why it is awesome:

 On StackOverflow, their sub-site for asking programming questions, one can ask a programming question, and, if it is a well written question, based on their guidelines, one usually has the correct answer within minutes.  Amazingly, this is a free service.  I'm not quite sure if that explains just how incredible the system is, so let me try another way:  One can either spend hours or days trying to solve a complex programming problem, or type it into StackOverflow and have it answered in minutes!

So, how does the system work?

Everyone can earn points by asking questions, answering questions, doing reviews, improving formatting, etc.  One earns these points democratically, meaning that one earns points by other people looking at what one has done and awarding or deducting points.  Once one reaches a certain number of points, one is considered more trustworthy or knowledgeable and therefore more functions are enabled for that person.  The details are quite complex, but the system has obviously been shaped over many years into what it is today, a beautiful and elegant solution.

Imagine what a self-improving and transparent democratic, meritocratic system could be like...

It starts with a well defined end goal, perhaps along the lines of "Increase the level of human happiness throughout the world," in order to focus the users and help the system to evolve with a purpose.

Ideally the system would be universal, however, realistically it would require the ability to make changes in specific geographical areas where there may be a different need, or more users, or perhaps the system is used by a political party.

Perhaps you, as a user of the system, came up with the idea that it might be good for everyone to get benefits instead of just people who are not working, so you go to the website and type your proposal, "Give benefits to everyone, not just those who are unemployed."

The website gives you a list of similar suggestions, and noticing that your proposal is already on the system and is number 273 in the queue, with 834 votes, you click the vote button to increase the value of the proposal and write a comment explaining why it would mean so much to you.

Screen for suggesting a proposal in hypothetical democratic, meritocratic system.

The proposal now has 835 votes and with its new value it is bumped up to position 272 in the queue.  Within the next few weeks a further 7433 people vote for the proposal and it eventually reaches the number one place in the queue.  Your comment on the proposal has been noted by many people and voted up so that it is number five in the list of comments.

People who have earned the most points on the system vote for a group of experts on the subjects involved, including mathematicians and people who are highly clued up about benefits.  This group of experts each records a ten minute video explaining anything that they think is relevant, and then the videos are uploaded to the site and linked to the question.  The people with the most points (trusted) watch all the videos and then vote on whether or not to go ahead with the proposal.  Each vote includes a the voter's reason for voting for their choice.

70% of the voters decide that it is not a good idea to give everyone benefits, so the proposal is disapproved, but you are not happy.  You believe that the system is faulty and you should be one of the people with a large number of points, so you can be included in the final round of voting.  For this reason you need to increase your points to 200.  This takes a lot of work.

You do a logic test, which bumps up your points from 50 to 100.  Then you read all of the recommended books... some history, some critical thinking, some science, some psychology, etc.  One of them doesn't appeal to you, so you create a proposal that the book is changed.  Eventually you do all the tests on the books that you read and your points are bumped up to 150.  Unfortunately you don't quite get the points that you need, so you decide to try to become an expert on benefits.

You go to the expert section on the website and follow the strategy to become an expert.  Eventually you write an amazing article on benefits and are selected as an expert.  The next time the benefits proposal makes its way to the top of the list you are ready with your well researched video on how amazing the world would be if everyone had benefits.

Your video is watched by the people with the most points and 80% of them vote for everyone to have benefits and the new policy becomes reality.

Unfortunately the new policy doesn't work out as well has you'd hoped, but since there is a democratic way to change things, people propose an even better system and the better system is implemented next.

Of course this is a rough idea of a transparent, self-improving, democratic, meritocratic system.  You can probably find faults in this solution... yip, I can see some already, but this is just the start.  The real system should be thoroughly discussed and thought out and would become more complex as it matures and improves. The main point, however, of this system, is that it is self-improving and focused. What better way to find a solution than a system that improves itself and generates solutions?

The system could be used not only for international change, but also for smaller groups, like charities or researchers, trying to figure out the most efficient way to solve a problem.

But imagine if it was used internationally. Imagine if you could see a clear and well defined path that you could take to suggest any change, or become an expert on any matter so that your knowledge, experience and desire for change could make a difference.

Practical Aspects

How to build it

Building the system is the easy bit. A basic, working system, ready to be improved as the system starts working, could be built in a month by a good programmer.

How to make it grow

The system would require regular use by a group of people in order for its' usefulness to be seen and to attract users and grow. For this reason it could start as simply a way for a charity similar to GiveWell to decide the most effective way to spend donations. Perhaps it could be used by activist communities like Zero State and Humanity+ to collaborate internationally. It could be used to run a public company, although that could work against peace, if the goal is to make money, seeing as the most effective ways to make money are not necessarily the most moral.

As the system matures, the charity or activist community could, for example, use the system to figure out better ways to find users. It might want to have donations, and it might want to use some kind of international currency like bitcoins, or it might simply rely on volunteers to complete any tasks that come out of the system.

Imagine an international, virtual community, voting and discussing what to spend money on in an organized fashion in order to achieve their goals.

My dream is...
  • that the system could expand to become so large and mature, that the best ideas for peace leap out of it like popcorn
  • that petitions, striking, demonstrating, rioting and civil war become obsolete
  • that other, better systems emerge as a result
  • that eventually the entire world is part of a single system that works for everyone

Thank you for considering my “Innovative solution for world peace.”

I'd be glad to hear any thoughts you have on my idea.

Regards,
Stephen Oberauer

More about me


Related links

StackOverflow: http://stackoverflow.com
GiveWell, a non-profit research organization that determines the most effective charities: http://www.givewell.org/about
A slightly similar idea to mine, called LiquidFeedback, used by The Pirate Party:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LiquidFeedback
Zero State, an example of a community who would probably like to collaborate on ideas like this: http://wavism.net/group2/
A forum for posting & voting on campaign ideas:  http://38degrees.uservoice.com/forums/189307-campaign-ideas-2013


Loomio, software for group decision making:  http://www.loomio.org (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vCL4I19o9U)
Computer-network based democracy: http://dss.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$14

Images:
1. Courtesy of ProLife at stock.xchng
2. Courtesy of svilen001 at stock.xchng

Support

If you like this idea and would like to see it become reality, all I would like you to do for now is to join one or more of the Democratic Intelligence groups:

Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/democraticintelligence
Google+:  https://plus.google.com/u/0/communities/118433697403372101600
LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/groups/Xparent-8209220

Update: http://democraticintelligence.org has been live for a while now, and needs your support.  The best way to make a difference is to use the site regularly.  Please register on the site and participate in order to get the ball rolling.  Here's how you can participate.

Questions & Answers

This is where I'll put questions that I've been asked about the idea, and my answers:

1.  "...would just need everyone to have computers in their home?"

Based on the exponential rate of internet growth, that's probably not going to take as long as most people think.  Nevertheless, if I were to imagine the system growing in stages, I would imagine that the first stage would be for the system to be accessible to whoever has access to the internet via whatever device, e.g. computer, smart phone, tablet, games console, smart tv, etc.  Others could go to their public library or school to gain access, which may be more convenient than getting to a voting station and standing in a queue for a couple of hours. Those who don't have access to such facilities, or aren't able to read would have to wait. In the next stage of the system, those using the system could vote for the needs of the underprivileged - firstly making sure that they have access to the things that they really need, e.g. food, water, shelter, education, and in the next stage they could vote for publicly accessible computers... whatever works to help achieve the goal of the system.